000 AXNT20 KNHC 091805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 16W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W EAST OF THE WAVE IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N58W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W AND 11N62W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LAST MAP ANALYSIS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 9N22W 9N37W 11N49W 11N53W 10N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W AROUND 09/1415 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. AFTERNOON HEATING IN COASTAL AREAS HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL GUYANA BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND IN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH GOES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOW MOSTLY JUST EAST OF 90W...WITH THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N77W...26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 25N88W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 69W... FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 82W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W EAST OF THE 64W/65W TROPICAL WAVE...IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N58W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W AND 11N62W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW IS NEAR 32N77W. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 70W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH ARE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO 25N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N62W 26N67W 23N70W. THIS TROUGH HAS REMAINED ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST MANY DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH...ALONG 21N74W 24N70W 27N68W BEYOND 32N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...AND FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE SPECIFICALLY FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH STARTS OUT NEAR 26N54W 23N57W TO 21N58W TO 19N59W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N30W TO 24N29W TO 12N33W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT 31N30W TO 30N36W TO 33N43W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT. $$ MT