000 AXNT20 KNHC 090530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 46W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE STRUCTURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY AIR. THUS...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N31W 10N46W 9N56W 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-48W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-39W AND FROM 48W-55W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 12W-35W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGES ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC AND A SECOND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE W GULF DRY AIR WHILE THE SE GULF IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE N GULF WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 26N92W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W ALONG 24N87W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W WHILE THE W GULF HAS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NE GULF IS ENJOYING RATHER CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER PANAMA EXTENDING N OVER W CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 69W WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N80W ALONG 17N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING THE AREA W OF 75W ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE 15N77W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N83W. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N79W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W S ALONG 29N79W THE W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 67W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 21N55W SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER CUTTING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH THE AXIS ALONG 50W AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W-62W. NARROW INDUCED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING W AFRICA EXTENDING INTO THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W. THIS IS COMBINED TO KEEP MOST OF THE ATLC DRY AND SHOWER FREE. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 50 TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM 21N50W SE ALONG 14N32W THE NNE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO NW AFRICA. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE... SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. $$ WALLACE