000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 16W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. AN EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CUT ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W...INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... 11N16W 10N24W 10N37W 9N43W 8N50W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 67W... A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM NORTH OF 32N68W 25N75W 24N84W 29N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 28N TO 29N... AND FROM 30N TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA JUST OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF BERMUDA TO 30N67W TO 26N70W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W...INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND FROM 60 TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. OTHER PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCLUDES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N64W TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE AREA OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH...EAST OF 70W INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF VENEZUELA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 67W. DRY AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS RIDGE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 63W. A SURFACE 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...POSSIBLY ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE BERMUDA-TO-22N73W SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N58W EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 18N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W...PROBABLY ENHANCED BY SOME FORM OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE ITCZ NEAR 10N60W NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH 20N30W...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO A RIDGE IN CENTRAL MOROCCO. MORE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 60W. $$ MT