000 AXNT20 KNHC 071058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N68W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N68W 24N70W TO 22N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N69W 24N70W 23N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N67W 26N64W 31N63W BEYOND 33N62W. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 25N97W TO 22N96W TO LAND NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 94W. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W...AND FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. A WEAK EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 22N. ...THE ITCZ... 11N13W 9N23W 10N33W 11N39W 8N45W 10N54W 10N58W 10N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 22N. CLOUDY SKIES WITH PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N78W ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN VENEZUELA. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE REGIONS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN ATLC JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIES ACROSS CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS RELATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 27N33W 20N50W 22N60W WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERS. THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC EAST OF 60W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N486W. $$ MT