000 AXNT20 KNHC 062355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR 31N70W OR ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 64W-69W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-32W...MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-52W. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA. IT AXIS LIES ALONG 63W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE SOUTH END OF THE WAVE OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N-20N WEST OF 80W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE AS WELL AS PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N28W 8N40W 9N49W 10N61W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 37W-49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100NM OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO 18N93W. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 25N. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN CONTINUES WSW ALONG 29N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TOMORROW AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. NE TO E WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. DRY MID/UPPER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED S INTO THE NRN GULF WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS SOUTH OF 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN VENEZUELA. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE REGIONS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W ATLC JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIES ACROSS CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS RELATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 27N33W 20N50W 22N60W WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERS. THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N46W. $$ GR