000 AXNT20 KNHC 061802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ABOUT 310 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 9 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS EXTENDING NE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO NEAR BERMUDA FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 64W-72W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 25W-36W...MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150NM OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UPPER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE SIGNAL A BIT. CONVECTION IS OVERALL MINIMAL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 52W-58W. LOW AMPLITUDE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THOUGH THE BARBADOS SOUNDING DID SHOW SOME PERTURBATION IN THE WIND FIELD YESTERDAY. CONVECTION OVERALL MINIMAL WITH A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 61W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THOUGH THE WAVE MAY BE TILTED A BIT TO THE NW INTO THE THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE TURNING NOTED N OF THE YUCATAN. THERE IS WIDESPREAD MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N28W 7N36W 9N49W 10N61W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100NM OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN HUGGING COASTAL TX AND MEXICO THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DRIFTED SW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING NW FROM THE YUCATAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS HELPING SUPPORT THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 92W-98W...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE REGION ALONG 18N94W 24N96W. CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED S INTO THE NRN GULF AROUND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR ABILENE TEXAS...AND THE SHARP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS THROUGH THE GULF WATERS JUST S OF WRN LOUISIANA. SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN IN THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 84W-88W THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. NE TO E WINDS 10-20KT ACROSS THE GULF WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATING THE BASIN. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NW VENZUELA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MINIMAL CONVECTION NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE REGIONS. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ATLANTIC RIDGE NEAR 30N WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE ELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE FROM N FLORIDA INTO THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS IS COLLAPSING WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY MID TO UPPER AIR S/SE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NNE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 30N70W. UPPER S/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N55W IS SPREADING THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/CLOUD TOPS TO THE N/NE. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 27N33W 19N47W 22N60W WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERS. UPPER W/SW FLOW S OF THIS UPPER TROUGHING IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE VICINITY. THE SAME W/SW UPPER FLOW IS SPREADING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE BETWEEN 14N50W AND 25N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS REFLECTING DOWN FROM THE UPPER FEATURES ALONG 21N33W 30N31W. A MID TO UPPER HIGH IS JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N23W. THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ALSO DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR 31N47W AND 36N17W. $$ WILLIS