000 AXNT20 KNHC 050513 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 17W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SURGE PRECEDING THE WAVE TO THE W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 11W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL ROTATION SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS LIMITING SHOWERS/ CONVECTION TO WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A SMALL THUNDERSTORM NEAR 20N42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF DRY AIR DEVELOPING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 4N28W 12N41W 10N48W 8N61W ACROSS THE SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 22W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE E TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE GULF W OF 95W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR ALABAMA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS COMBINATION CONTINUES TO ADVECT AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GIVING THE GULF S OF 26N SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER SHOWER FREE. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE N GULF WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SSE INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA TO 13N75W WEDGED BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 65W. THIS IS GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 66W WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND E CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE CAROLINA COAST S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 32N79W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W W OF 73W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E ALONG 30N68W S TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 73W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ALONG 23N65W TO BEYOND 32N64W. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 33N BETWEEN 64W-73W. A SECOND INDUCED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N33W SW TO 17N43W. THE AREA FROM 14N-30N BETWEEN 40W-62W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 32W-35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 13N28W N TO BEYOND 32N21W PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE 16N34W TO BEYOND 32N27W. $$ WALLACE