000 AXNT20 KNHC 042353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42 S OF 18N WITH AN EXPOSED 1010 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 50W-52W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN VENEZUELA MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SLIGHT INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO AND WESTERN VENZUELA. A DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING UNDER A SELY WIND FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THESE ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THIS AREA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 5N25W 11N38W 10N50W 8N58W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 5N-13N EAST OF 20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ARE STREAMING TO THE E AROUND THE RIDGING OVER THE E GULF. THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA ARE UNDER DRY MID TO UPPER AIR WITH TROUGHING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALSO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE BASIN ALONG 74W/75W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ITCZ MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N66W TO 22N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 130/150 NM BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. PART OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SE COAST REPORTED GUSTY WINDS OF 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING UNDER THE NE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 68W. A DEEP LAYER LOW IS NEAR 31N35W WHERE A WEAK 1016MB SURFACE LOW IS ALSO ANALYZED. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW ALONG 25N36W 18N50W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALL THE WAY NE AND N OVER THE E ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 23W-32W. AN UPPER HIGH IS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...THE ERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ GR