000 AXNT20 KNHC 032340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/38W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE JUST WAS PUT ON THE MAP AT 03/1800 UTC. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH GOES FROM 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES TO AT LEAST 20N43W. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/67W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N67W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 17N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W... AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA SOUTHWARD TO 13N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 90W FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO 20N. STRONG AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO SOUTHEAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ... 10N13W 5N25W 9N34W 8N40W 9N46W 8N50W 6N55W 6N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 5N20W 3N25W 3N29W 5N37W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE ALONG 92W/93W COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEST OF 85W. MOST OF THE REST OF THE FLOW EAST OF 85W IS DIVING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N94W 26N94W 22N93W UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF WEST OF 88W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 24N EAST OF 86W RELATED TO THE BAHAMAS TO 19N79W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/67W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N67W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 17N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N75W IN THE BAHAMAS TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N79W JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN HAITI. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W... COVERING PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY GOES TO 13N80W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 90W FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO 20N. STRONG AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST FROM EL SALVADOR TO SOUTHEAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N73W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N75W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO A JUST- NORTHWEST-OF-JAMAICA 19N79W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES GOES FROM THE END OF AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT NEAR 31N61W TO 27N68W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 22N59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N31W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 34N23W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 34N23W TO 25N28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26TN TO 31N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK TO THE NORTH...AND THE MODELS DISSIPATE IT LATER THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA NEAR 17N16W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT