000 AXNT20 KNHC 030010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR 47.1N 52.2W MOVING NORTHEAST 35 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 43 NM/80 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 NM/420 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ISAAC IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AFTER PASSING NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N33W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W JUST AS EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N37W TO 20N50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W...CUTTING ACROSS THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MORE PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N67W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 16N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF 18N60W 17N64W 14N67W 12N67W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM 75W TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SOME UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 70W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA JUST WEST OF BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... 10N12W 8N21W 9N32W 8N36W 8N40W 9N45W 9N48W 9N54W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING FROM SIERRA LEONE TO GUINEA. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 19N102W TO 24N104W TO 27N104W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 95W/96W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SPREADING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO AT LEAST WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 88W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N67W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 16N67W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF 18N60W 17N64W 14N67W 12N67W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM 75W TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SOME UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 70W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA JUST WEST OF BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE GONE FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO JUST OFFSHORE IN THE MONA PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN HAITI. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS GOES FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N72W BEYOND 32N67W. THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH IS HEAVILY LADEN IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. IT IS GOING UP AGAINST A RIDGE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N75W 26N69W BEYOND 32N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N65W 26N69W 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N76W IN EASTERN CUBA TO 21N79W TO 21.5N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N33W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N27W 26N27W 22N31W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W JUST AS EASILY MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N37W TO 20N50W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N29W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N27W 26N27W 22N31W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W...CUTTING ACROSS THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. $$ MT