000 AXNT20 KNHC 021042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ISAAC IS CENTERED NEAR 40.5N 58.2W AT 02/0900 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISAAC IS MOVING RAPIDLY NOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED FROM THE MID LEVEL CENTER. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 40N-45N BETWEEN 53W-59W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 26W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 40W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N28W 8N37W 10N48W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N66W ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 8N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N8N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 1.5N FROM 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W EXTENDS N OVER THE W GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF W OF 86W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF E US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF AND DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY ISOLATED...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SURROUNDING THE S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH SITUATED OVER S LOUISIANA GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA N OF 16N FROM 74W-86W GIVING THE AREA FROM 16N-21N W OF 74W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N71W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO 13N77W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THAT AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N66W SW ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE E NEAR 27N61W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 57W-68W ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 17N51W DRIFTING WESTWARD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N33W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N E OF 50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING SW TO 24N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N FROM 20W-35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NNE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N13W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE