000 AXNT20 KNHC 020449 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ISAAC IS CENTERED NEAR 38.6N 58.8W AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISAAC HAS LOST ITS DISTINCT EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST HOURS AND IS MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CAUSE ISAAC TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-41N BETWEEN 56W-60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N31W MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 25W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 12.5N FROM 40W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY N OF 17N ARE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N23W 8N35W 10N46W 10N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 8N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 10W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W EXTENDS N OVER THE W GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF E US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF AND DIPPING AS FAR S AS THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH SITUATED OVER S LOUISIANA GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 16N-21N W OF 75W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO 14N74W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THAT AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 71W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N68W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE E NEAR 27N61W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 54W-70W ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 61W-70W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N50W DRIFTING WESTWARD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N33W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING SW TO 25N37W AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N30W TO 20N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N FROM 23W-36W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N14W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST PUSHING OFF THE COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE