000 AXNT20 KNHC 291812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 29/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.4N 56.2W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 55W-58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A CYCLONIC SWIRL IS SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ AT 10N29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 24W-33W. MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 18N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 30W-32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N61W 20N63W 12N65W 6N65W. A 1013 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO W HONDURAS TO THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N29W 10N40W 9N60W. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG 28N80W 27N90W 27N100W...MOSTLY VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING E. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC...AND A 1018 MB HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 75W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 60W-78W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 32N75W 28N80W MOSTLY VOID OF ALL CONVECTION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N71W 26N76W 23N80W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 102 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS W OF T.S. ISAAC NEAR 27N65W. A RIDGE IS ALONG 50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N33W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 20W-45W. $$ FORMOSA