000 AXNT20 KNHC 291113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 29/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.2N 55.6W MOVING NORTHWEST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM OF THE CENTER...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N26W...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N33W LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N37W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N38W TO 20N38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N62W TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N64W TO 14N64W 7N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N55W 21N59W 17N61W 16N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS/NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N68W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA AROUND THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN HAITI AND EASTERN HONDURAS ARE RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 13N25W 12N30W 10N40W 9N47W 9N52W 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N8W 4N20W 9N27W 8N33W 9N40W 8N50W 9N45W 11N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA IS PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN AT LEAST 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N78W 28N81W 27N90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. WHAT HAD BEEN A COLD FRONT EARLIER NOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N73W 27N76W 24N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N72W 29N75W 26N78W 24N81W 22N86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 26N68W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES/NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW IS ALONG 62W/64W... AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE ENOUGH FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AT LEAST THREE NOTABLE AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DOMINATES THE WEATHER NEWS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N33W LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N37W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N38W TO 20N38W. $$ MT