000 AXNT20 KNHC 290603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 29/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.2N 55.2W MOVING NORTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N31W LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N32W TO 24N33W TO 19N34W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18.5N ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO EASTERN HONDURAS/CENTRAL NICARAGUA FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH...AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA AROUND THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND 85W LEADING NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 14N23W 12N30W 10N40W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N9W 5N21W 9N26W 9N36W 9N45W 10N56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WEST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH RUNS FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ANOTHER...FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE HAITI/ DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N71W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N67W THROUGH THE HISPANIOLA LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 14N71W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N81W JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND/OR DISSIPATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 5N85W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...MAYBE AT THE EDGE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 5N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 27N56W TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND ENDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. $$ MT