000 AXNT20 KNHC 281759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 28/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.2N 54.7W MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 54W-57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N23W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 23W-26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-51W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESS ANTILLES ALONG 61W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 14N23W 9N40W 10N60W. BESIDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W... AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 23N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-85W. A 1017 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL TEXAS A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE N GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING E. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 22N98W 29N80W. EXPECT THE S FLORIDA FRONT TO DRIFT TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. THE NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS WITH CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 11N-25N BETWEEN 64W-80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA TO 26N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO T.S. ISAAC NEAR 28N55W PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM. A RIDGE IS ALONG 45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 10W-42W. $$ FORMOSA