000 AXNT20 KNHC 280553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 28/0300 UTC IS NEAR 27.2N 53.8W MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W...AND 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12.5N ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS AREA IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W MOVING WEST 5 KT. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 13N16W 12N20W 11N25W 9N42W 9N46W 10N57W 10N61W 10N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FAR 7N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 40W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM GAMBIA TO SENEGAL MOVING TOWARD THE WATER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 17N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ONLY IS EAST OF 90W. 23N EAST OF 94W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM EAST OF 12N65W 15N70W 19N76W. THIS AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N65W TO 26N68W TO 22N77W...AND IN TRADEWIND EASTERLY FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 27N56W TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N77W...BECOMING STATIONARY AT 29N77W...CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. $$ MT