000
AXNT20 KNHC 271805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W 
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
26N58W IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW...THUS MOST 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE SURFACE LOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 48W-52W.  THIS LOW HAS 
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH 
OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT.  A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
12N20.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
13N-18N BETWEEN 18W-23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-23W.  

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING 
WEST 10-15 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 42W-45W.   
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W 
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 58W-60W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W 
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-86W.   

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N30W 9N40W 10N60W.  OTHER 
THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 29W-34W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 27N80W 23N94W 17N95W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 93W-96W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  A 1018 MB HIGH 
IS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.  
ANOTHER 1016 MB HIGH IS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N97W.  A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS E TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
IN 24 HOURS WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS 
APPROACHING...SEE ABOVE.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE TRAVERSING THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 
65W-90W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH  
CONVECTION.           

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N75W 
28N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N46W.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND 
W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N58W.  A RIDGE 
IS ALONG 45W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 25N26W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 10W-40W.   

$$
FORMOSA