000 AXNT20 KNHC 271107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23.5N52W. THIS LOW CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24.5N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ITCZ CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 17N DRIFTING WEST. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 75W AND MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N22W 9N34W 9N39W 8N47W 11N52W 10N55N 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 17N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 94W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W... TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UP AGAINST THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAINST THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND THE MEXICO COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS WHAT REMAINS OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 6 HOURS AGO. EVERYTHING IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N99W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TIME PERIODS ARE NON-EXISTENT NOW. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM EAST OF 12N65W 15N70W 19N76W. THIS AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH/MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N65W TO 26N68W TO 22N77W...AND IN TRADEWIND EASTERLY FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 27N75W...LEADING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE CONNECTED BY A TROUGH...ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N65W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N68W TO A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N72W TO 22N77W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N21W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N27W TO 19N31W TO 16N34W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23.5N52W...AND IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N58W. THIS 24N58W LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. $$ MT