000 AXNT20 KNHC 261103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N49W. THIS LOW CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 13N DRIFTING WEST. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST DRIFTING WEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 22N WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N70W 11N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA CURVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...OVER THE AREA INTO WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ...THE ITCZ... 12N17W 10N25W 10N29W 7N34W 8N42W 10N47W 10N53W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING THROUGH PERIODS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION ALONG THE AFRICA COAST...IN THE AREA OF POSSIBLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS FLOW CONTINUES AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 30N80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W... TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR TAMPA TO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W. THE COLD FRONT STILL PASSES FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W...FROM JUST WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N70W 11N64W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N35W...TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N49W...TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N55W TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 28N30W TO 25N37W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N47W. $$ MT