000 AXNT20 KNHC 260602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N47W. THIS LOW CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST DRIFTING WEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 22N WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N68W 11N63W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA CURVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...OVER THE AREA INTO WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ...THE ITCZ... 12N17W 10N25W 10N29W 7N34W 8N42W 10N47W 10N53W 9N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING THROUGH PERIODS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION ALONG THE AFRICA COAST...IN THE AREA OF POSSIBLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS FLOW CONTINUES AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 30N80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W... TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N 92.5W AND 17.5N94W FROM JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W TO NORTH FLORIDA TO 28N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N87W TO 24N94W AND 20N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...TO 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N93W AS THIS LOW CENTER SPINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER HOURS HAS DIMINISHED BY NOW. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EAST OF 17N68W 11N63W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N35W...TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N49W...TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N55W TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N69W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N79W OFF THE CUBA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 26N36W...ENDING IN BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N47W. THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM 26N36W 26N48W 24N56W 24N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 24N60W TO 27N63W TO 30N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N31W 28N28W 30N26W BEYOND 32N25W.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. $$ MT