000 AXNT20 KNHC 260004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD MOTIONS. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-34W UNTIL 1800 UTC HAS SINCE BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING A BIT AS WELL. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N46W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 890 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 41W-47W...DISPLACED MAINLY E AND NE OF THE CENTER DUE TO SW/W SHEAR IN THE VICINITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE E DUE TO THE SMALL AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING SEEN FROM IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE PICTURES THIS EVENING FROM 9N=14N BETWEEN 45W-53W. GOES LOW LEVEL HIGH DENSITY WINDS IN THIS REGION ALSO SUGGEST THIS MORE EAST LOCATION. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT...EXTENDING THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ABC ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THESE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N28W 7N33W 9N44W 9N53W 9N61W. OUTSIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE AFRICAN COAST AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 13W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING IS STILL THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY WHILE THE PORTION OVER NE FLORIDA IS STILL A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS SEEN WITHIN 150NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS MOVING MOSTLY ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE MEXICO. DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA IS MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH MID TO UPPER EASTERLY FLOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...A 1024MB SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE NW GULF FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LOOK FOR THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...WRN CUBA...AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS IT WAS A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE MOVING MOSTLY TO THE N AROUND A MID TO UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR HISPANIOLA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF BARBADOS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIR A COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY UPPER HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 30N75W AND 30N55W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 65W-80W. THERE IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SEEN ON WV IMAGERY E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N69W...WHICH SEEMS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH HISPANIOLA. THERE IS A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 23N52W THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. JUST TO THE E OF THIS AREA LIES THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 20N46W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER HIGH SITUATED WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N34W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N31W...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N36W. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THIS POINT ALONG 26N50W 27N63W. A NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N52W TO THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE SE US COAST WITH ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTMS WITHIN 100NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. $$ WILLIS