000 AXNT20 KNHC 251808 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT AT LOW LEVELS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 9N-12N BETWEEN 26W-30W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N45W. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS MOVE THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES 30N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR THAT HAS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE ABC ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE VIRGINS ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THESE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 8N27W 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W. OUTSIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N AND E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE COMING OUT OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY IS STILL THE COLD FRONT. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CITY OF MONTERREY IN NE MEXICO REPORTED 4.16 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN ON TUE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING THIS STRONG COLD FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98 COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS BETWEEN THESE RIDGES AND IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93/94W. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SSW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE PRESENCE OF THE COLOMBIAN LOW. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CLOUDS TOP ARE WARMING UP. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N76W IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AN UPPER HIGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG TRADES OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N52W SW TO JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH SITUATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N32W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N31W...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 24N50W 25N60W 29N64W. A NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N53W TO THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N30W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE REGION N OF 20N EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. $$ GR 000 AXNT20 KNHC 251808 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT AT LOW LEVELS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 26W-30W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N45W. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS MOVE THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES 30N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR THAT HAS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE ABC ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE VIRGINS ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THESE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 8N27W 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W. OUTSIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N AND E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE COMING OUT OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY IS STILL THE COLD FRONT. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CITY OF MONTERREY IN NE MEXICO REPORTED 4.16 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN ON TUE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING THIS STRONG COLD FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98 COVERING MOST OF THE GULF AND MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS BETWEEN THESE RIDGES AND IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93/94W. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SSW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE PRESENCE OF THE COLOMBIAN LOW. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CLOUDS TOP ARE WARMING UP. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N76W IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AN UPPER HIGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG TRADES OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N52W SW TO JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH SITUATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N32W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N31W...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 24N50W 25N60W 29N64W. A NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N53W TO THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N30W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE REGION N OF 20N EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. $$ GR