000 AXNT20 KNHC 251104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS FROM 7N TO 8N ALONG 29W/30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. A NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N45W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR THAT HAS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... 12N15W 7N26W 7N30W 7N32W 8N40W 8N50W 9N53W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N65W...TO 22N69W...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 95W/96W. STRONG SHOWERS AND PRECIPITATION ALSO ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...PASSES THROUGH 31N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N80W TO 25N86W. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SIX HOURS AGO WAS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TEXAS NOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W...TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N103W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N65W...TO 22N69W...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W INCLUDING AROUND PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THE EXTREME EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N37W...TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N45W...TO 21N51W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N65W...TO 22N69W...TO 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 63...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W INCLUDING AROUND PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THE EXTREME EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EVERYTHING TO THE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N40W TO 24N50W...TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N54W TO 25N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 25N59W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N64W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 26N71W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN A DISTINCT LINE MARK THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. $$ MT