000
AXNT20 KNHC 250614
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 13N 
MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NEAR
8N28.5W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ ARE FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 18N45W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR 
THAT HAS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 
20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 8N24W 7N28W 7N32W 8N40W 8N49W 8N52W 10N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
20N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N81W...TO A SMALLER AND LESS 
OBVIOUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N87W...TO A SOUTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N92W JUST 
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM 
16N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 
103W AND 106W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...PASSES THROUGH 31N71W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N80W TO 25N86W. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
21N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
21N69W...TO THE 20N77W SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO 17N81W AND TO 24N87W...BEFORE HEADING 
TO 20N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM COLOMBIA
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N35W TO A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 25N47W TO SECOND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N64W...TO 21N69W...TO THE 20N77W 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EVERYTHING TO THE NORTH 
OF THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W
AND 73W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W
TO 26N50W. A LINE OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MARKS THIS 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
MT