000 AXNT20 KNHC 250023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W AT 15KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N44W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW IS EXPERIENCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF WLY SHEAR THUS CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 38W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS IS A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR THAT HAS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10 KT. BROADENING INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 57W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 11N50W 10N60W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 17W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N90W 24N98W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N87W 25N93W 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 91W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 94W-100W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS JUST W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA...E OF 86W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS MODERATE TRADEWINDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 89W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE LOW AT 21N90W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER CUBA DUE TO THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N68W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS. MORE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N63W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS ALONG 26N67W 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N39W 28N45W 26N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N56W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N50W. A LARGE HIGH IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N30W. $$ FORMOSA