000 AXNT20 KNHC 141816 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 14/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.5N 55.9W. GORDON IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 75 TO 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE AT 14/1500 UTC IS NEAR 13.7N 34.7W. HELENE IS MOVING WEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W AT 14/0600 UTC HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS BECAUSE OF LACK OF EVIDENCE OF ITS EXISTENCE. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DUST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NO OTHER CONVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE EXCEPT FOR WHAT IS IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 18N JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 KT AT LEAST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TOP OF THIS FEATURE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN GUADELOUPE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF JAMAICA ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 14N17W 16N24W 16N28W 10N40W 8N48W 8N53W 9N57W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N34W 9N38W 8N44W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N51W 9N56W 11N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 31N82W 29N90W 28N101W. IT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES OF THE U.S.A. WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH NOW IS IN THE EASTERN U.S.A. HEADING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES FROM MEXICO NEAR 23N100W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND BEYOND 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE EAST OF 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND WEST OF 90W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO 28N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 28N90W TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27.5N 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 29N EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 20N TO 30N WEST OF 92W... IN THE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N70W ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N79W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CENTRAL AMERICA IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF JAMAICA ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAR OF 68W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W BEYOND 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH FROM 28N65W TO THE 22N74W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO HISPANIOLA IS THE NEXT FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N59W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHES 26N/27N NEAR 57W/58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 26N44W TO 21N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 24N50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. $$ MT