000 AXNT20 KNHC 131819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 13/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 26.0N 57.9W. GORDON IS MOVING NORTH 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 31N61W...ABOUT 330 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N45W...ABOUT 760 NM TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF GORDON. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 20N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHES FOR ABOUT 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH... AND/OR THE DIAMETER AROUND THE 32N45W LOW CENTER. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 13/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 12.0N 28.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N38W 25N35W 29N33W BEYOND 32N32W CURVING THROUGH 33N28W AND 32N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 TO 320 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. THE SMALL AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS...WEAKENING WITH TIME. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK AS IT CONTINUES TO BE A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE. THIS FEATURE IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATION...AND QUIKSCAT DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. A THIRD ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION EASILY IS REACHING THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WEAK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT HINT OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTH OF 15N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N70W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N76W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 15N16W 14N22W 9N33W 8N41W 8N44W 8N49W 9N52W 11N57W 12N60W 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WATERS...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO 22N102W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT GOES FROM BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST AWAY FROM THE TEXAS BORDER. A SECOND COLD FRONT GOES FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM NORTH OF 27N86W 27N92W 25N97W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N70W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N76W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W ACCOMPANY THE 58W/59W TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION EASILY IS REACHING THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. WE SEE A COMBINATION OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BASED ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE ITCZ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 26N68W TO 21N70W ACROSS HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. A SURFACE TROUGH STARTS AT 31N61W AND GOES TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N66W TO A SECOND 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N72W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W AND 23N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N38W 25N35W 29N33W BEYOND 32N32W CURVING THROUGH 33N28W AND 32N19W. $$ MT