000 AXNT20 KNHC 110005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED WEATHER STATION AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT ON BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 28N-36N BETWEEN 65W-68W. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 21N54W...OR ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 52-57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. LOW TO MID CLOUD MOTIONS DO SHOW SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY BUT THE PATTERN IS A BIT DISTORTED. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE IS CLEAR THOUGH AFTER ANALYSIS OF HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS ON THE TAFB WEBSITE. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL NEAR THE WAVE N OF 10N...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W. A LOW AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED A BIT NEAR THIS WAVE AXIS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW NOTED WITHIN 150NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. GUIDANCE AND RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THIS WAVE MAY BE SPLITTING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W THEN NW IN THE WAKE OF FLORENCE...AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH W THROUGH THE TRPCL ATLC AND INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED S OF 16N WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS IN THE EPAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N25W 8N30W 9N39W 8N59W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 13-18W. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N11W NEAR THE GUINEA/MALI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF THIS EVENING LIES IN THE NRN PORTION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-95W. THIS SEEMS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND BROAD WRLY FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SE US. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THIS REGION BASED ON BUOY/SHIP OBS AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO CONTINUE DRIFTING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE SE GULF AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...RESPECTIVELY...AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS SPINNING AROUND IT. THERE IS ONE CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N83W. OTHER SIMILAR CLUSTERS THAT RECENTLY POPPED UP OVER COLOMBIA ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO ITS ADJACENT SRN CARIBBEAN WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA AND PUERTO RICO IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER HOVERING OVER THE AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 65W-80W. DEBRIS MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NE TO SW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-65W. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES ARE FAIRLY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LEFT S OF FLORENCE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE FLORENCE IS MOVING N TOWARDS BERMUDA AROUND THE WRN EXTENT OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE HAS ALREADY BEGUN REGISTERING ON MOST EAST COAST BUOYS...THUS DANGEROUS SURF EXPECTED MANY LOCATIONS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXTENDING INTO THE TRPCL N ATLC FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N62W 18N58W 26N57W. JUST E OF THIS LIES THE SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 21N54W. A MID TO UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 26N34W. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SURFACE AS A TROF...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE SPINNING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 30W-37W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF WRN SAHARA AND S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N17W. $$ WILLIS