000 AXNT20 KNHC 101902 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 CORRECTION FOR WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG 30N INSTEAD OF EASTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE IS 29.2N 66.1W AT 10/1800 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ALSO 195 NM/365 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH RECENTLY WAS REPORTED AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 NM/75 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 NM/415 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. 8.82 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W... AND FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AROUND FLORENCE GOES FROM 20N TO 35N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 1KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 9N13W 7N23W 9N38W 8N42W 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W...AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS AT A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N101W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TO COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND BEYOND 31N77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ALONG 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 25N IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N65W IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS BEING PUSHED FROM EAST TO WEST...REACHING 78W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTHEAST OF 19N63W 13N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE COAST OF CENTRAL PANAMA NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 77W HAS BEEN DISSIPATING STEADILY WITH TIME. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WEST OF THE 27N35W LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND NORTH OF THE 21N53W SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE 53W TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO 32N59W...WHICH IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE FLORENCE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N33W 25N37W 23N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 4W AND 23W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ MT