000 AXNT20 KNHC 101048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 65.7W AT 10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 280 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER NIGHT WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 28N66.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 64W-70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W WITH AN 1011 MB LOW SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION WHILE THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE 1012 MB LOW THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR 9N45W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 25N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90/120 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N52.5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 53W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N22W 8N35W 12N50W OVER N VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA NEAR 9N61W THEN S OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 21W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO THE NW ATLC AND JUST CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MEANDERING TO 28N90W AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER QUITE THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE COVERS THE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO A SMALL UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. THIS TROUGH/LOW IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF 14N FROM 77W-TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO POP UP /THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING HURRICANE FLORENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NW ATLC IS NOW N OF 30N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E US COAST N OF 30N. WEAKENING NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 28N76W. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AND NOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 400 NM OF 65W N OF 21N AND WITHIN 500/600 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N65W S INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 10N60W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS E OF FLORENCE COVERING THE ATLC N OF 16N FROM 26W-55W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W AND A WEAKER ONE NEAR 25N55W ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF FLORENCE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC COVERS THE AREA E OF 26W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC E OF FLORENCE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH THE STRONGER UPPER LOW EXTENDING ALONG 31N32W-24N34W. $$ WALLACE