000 AXNT20 KNHC 091825 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 64.0W AT 09/1800 UTC MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM WATERS...AND LOW SHEAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS NOW NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1012 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 31W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 48W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W/87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO NEAR THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 79W-89W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 95W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 9N30W 8N50W 12N65W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 29N80W 29N95W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. NW FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. EXPECT THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY N AND PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...SEE ABOVE. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO PANAMA ALONG 11N-9N WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N72W PRODUCING MUCH LESS SHEAR OVER T.S. FLORENCE THAN YESTERDAY...AND PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NOW CENTERED OVER T.S. FLORENCE AND IS PRODUCING SE FLOE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 13N. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 29N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A DOMINATE 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W. T.S.FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO GO AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS WEAKENING ALLOWING FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FLORENCE IS NOW PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 25W-45W. $$ FORMOSA