000 AXNT20 KNHC 091201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 63.3W AT 09/1200 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM WATERS...AND LOW SHEAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS NOW TO THE SE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OF THIS VERY LARGE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 22.5N-28N BETWEEN 59W-65.5W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N22W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE LOW SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-23N BETWEEN 18W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 44W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS OVER PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N25W 9N38W 7N46W INTO THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N65W THEN ACROSS N VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ALONG 8N77W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 8N35W-6N40W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20W-35W AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OVER THE FAR E US AND THE E GULF HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND IS NOW N OF 28N E OF 86W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 29N86W IN THE NE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WSW ALONG 27N80W TO BETWEEN TAMPICO MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS RETROGRADED TO OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W AND COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM NE COLOMBIA N TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF MARTINIQUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE FRONT FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 77.5W-80.5W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA N TO NEAR 31N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N72W AND CONTINUES TO PRECEDE FLORENCE IN ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 74W-78W. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE COVERS A BROAD AREA WITHIN 500/600 NM OF RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N50W NW TO 33N70W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS E OF FLORENCE COVERING THE ATLC N OF 18N FROM 25W-50W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N32W AND A WEAKER ONE NEAR 29N49W. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF FLORENCE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC COVERS THE AREA E OF 25W AND DISPLACING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC E OF FLORENCE. $$ WALLACE