000 AXNT20 KNHC 081746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 59.1W AT 08/1500 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS APPEARS BETTER ORGANIZED. CONVECTION IS ALL AROUND THE CENTER AND THE STORM IS NOW MORE SYMMETRICAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 53W-63W. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 14N19W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 20W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AFRICAN DUST WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 40W-47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 42W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 10N32W 8N44W 13N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 30N81W 27N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-100W. EXPECT THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...SEE ABOVE. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO PANAMA ALONG 10N WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N67W PRODUCING MUCH LESS SHEAR OVER T.S. FLORENCE THAN YESTERDAY...AND PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N89W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N-32N BETWEEN 80W-100W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W...WITH CONVECTION...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 35N70W 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-36N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A DOMINATE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO 30N70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 23N67W HAS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 15N-32N BETWEEN 62W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N57W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 40W-62W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. $$ FORMOSA