000 AXNT20 KNHC 081038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 57.6W AT 08/0900 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FLORENCE REMAINS A VERY BROAD ELONGATED SYSTEM AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. CONVECTION IS NOW MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE CENTER WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 24N57W-22N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-62W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 19N41W-21N47W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 89W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THUS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 8N27W 7N37W 10N44W BECOMING DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE THEN ALONG 12N62W ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 17W-22W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E HALF OF THE US EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO NEAR 22N94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DRY THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N84W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N/CENTRAL VENEZUELA OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 16N72W-2N84W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W 14N77W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 78W. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N78W. NARROWING UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 33N72W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S TO CENTRAL CUBA AND IS BEING FORCED NE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W AND THE UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W AND IS PRECEDING FLORENCE IN ITS WESTWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 62W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE N AND W OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 64W-62W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR FLORENCE AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 35W-62W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC NE OF FLORENCE N OF 20N FROM 23W-40W WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N29W. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF FLORENCE. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC WITH IT WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF FLORENCE. $$ WALLACE