000 AXNT20 KNHC 071806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 07/1500 UTC IS NEAR 19.8N 53.4W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N60W IS PRODUCING STRONG SWLY SHEAR ...AND SWLY DRY AIR...ON THE STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 50W-52W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 48W-50W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 25W-27W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 40W-45W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N30W 14N40W 15N53W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-20W ...FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 30W-32W...FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 33W-35W ...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 22N95W 19N96W 21N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA AT 31N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N BETWEEN 80W-105W. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO RETROGRADE AS A WARM FRONT BACK TO TO NW GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE THE OTHER END OF THE FRONT STAYS STATIONARY OVER N FLORIDA. EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION BE ALONG THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES...SEE ABOVE. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO PANAMA ALONG 10N WITH CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N60W IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 75W-90W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W...WITH CONVECTION...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 35N73W 31N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A DOMINATE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N43W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO 31N75W. ALONG 33N50W 30N75W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N18W 28N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-80W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 21N60W HAS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 12N-35N BETWEEN 55W-73W...AND IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER T.S. FLORENCE. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 20N46W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 12W-50W. $$ FORMOSA