000 AXNT20 KNHC 061809 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 18.3N 50.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE FOUND MOSTLY TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N57W IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER THE STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 45W-50W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 50W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N38W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 37.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 36W-41W. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS...OVER HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 64W-67W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 78W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 14N35W 15N50W 12N55W 11N65W. BESIDES CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N MEXICO ALONG 24N94W 24N100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 91W. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PUSH S TO ABOUT 22N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE THE OTHER END OVER N FLORIDA STAYS STATIONARY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO BE OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES...SEE ABOVE. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO PANAMA ALONG 10N-9N WITH CONVECTION THE HEAVIEST OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N57W IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 65W-80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W...WITH CONVECTION...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 35N74W 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 41N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW ALONG 33N50W 30N75W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W 26N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 22N57W HAS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 12N-32N BETWEEN 50W-65W...AND IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER T.S. FLORENCE. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 20N33W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 12W-50W. $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 061809 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 18.3N 50.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE FOUND MOSTLY TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N57W IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER THE STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 45W-50W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 50W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N38W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 37.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 36W-41W. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS...OVER HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 64W-67W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 78W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 14N35W 15N50W 12N55W 11N65W. BESIDES CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N MEXICO ALONG 24N94W 24N100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 93W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 91W. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PUSH S TO ABOUT 22N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHILE THE OTHER END OVER N FLORIDA STAYS STATIONARY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO BE OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES...SEE ABOVE. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO PANAMA ALONG 10N-9N WITH CONVECTION THE HEAVIEST OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N57W IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 65W-80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W...WITH CONVECTION...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 35N74W 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 41N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW ALONG 33N50W 30N75W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W 26N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 22N57W HAS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 12N-32N BETWEEN 50W-65W...AND IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER T.S. FLORENCE. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 20N33W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 12W-50W. $$ FORMOSA