000 AXNT20 KNHC 061104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 18.4N 50.2W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W...AND FROM 15N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF T.S. FLORENCE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 53W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 37.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE EASTERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS...CLOSE TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO CUBA NEAR 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W NEAR A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N14W 9N22W 11N32W 13N51W 11N56W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N16W 8N22W 5N27W 3N31W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 27N...CUTTING ACROSS TEXAS FROM 27N TO 31N...AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND THEN THROUGH MOST OF GEORGIA TO THE CAROLINAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A MUCH SMALLER-SIZED CIRCULATION AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 86W WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. AN INTERIOR MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N100W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAK AND SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N83W TO A WEAK AND DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EL SALVADOR. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 66W AND 73W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 15N74W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 19N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N76W. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N70W 32N69W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N55W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO 28N42W TO 27N50W TO THE 23N55W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE 23N55W LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 420 NM TO 480 NM NORTHWEST OF T.S. FLORENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 15N40W TO 27N24W BEYOND 33N20W. $$ MT