000 AXNT20 KNHC 060605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 49.5W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17.5N TO 20.5N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. ANOTHER AREA OF SOME CELLS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N35W 17N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N35W 17N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA AND JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N76W TO 17N74W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N14W 8N24W 11N32W 9N38W 7N42W 8N47W 11N49W 10N55W 11N60W. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 27N...CUTTING ACROSS TEXAS FROM 28N TO 31N... AND CONTINUING ACROSS LOUISIANA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI...ALL OF ALABAMA EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER... AND THEN THROUGH GEORGIA TO THE CAROLINAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A MUCH SMALLER-SIZED CIRCULATION AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALONG WITH MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING THE REST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY-DISSIPATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 84W WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W WITH AN INTERIOR MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N100W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAK AND SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N83W TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN WESTERN HONDURAS/POSSIBLY IN EL SALVADOR. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N74W. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 15N74W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 19N85W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 31N76W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N55W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THAT CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO 28N42W TO 27N50W TO THE 23N55W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE 23N55W LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 420 NM TO 480 NM NORTHWEST OF T.S. FLORENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 15N40W TO 27N24W BEYOND 33N20W. $$ MT