000 AXNT20 KNHC 041054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.6N 41.1W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N42W TO 27N47W TO 21N50W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N47W MOVING WEST 10 KT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE IS THE WAVE THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 13N47W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT AN EARLIER DATE...AND IT CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD DEVELOPED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTAL WATERS...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI. A CELL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N74.5W PROBABLY IS NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE...BUT RATHER TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS MOVING ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 17N16W 16N24W 14N30W 15N40W 12N49W 12N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND REMAIN IN THE AREA FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 18W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN...WHICH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 27N...TEXAS NORTH OF 30N...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO AN EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N86W TO 25N95W TO 21N104W IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 TO 280 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W...RELATED TO THE 27N74W-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N74W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...TO WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH. DRY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EVEN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF 12N83W 10N77W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N74W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...TO WEST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N59W TO 24N66W TO THE 27N74W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N42W TO 27N47W TO 21N50W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N46W TO 25N54W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 25N54W TO 27N62W TO 30N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 30N66W BEYOND 32N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N35W 30N38W 29N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 25N37W TO 23N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 20N36W TO 28N30W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. $$ MT