000 AXNT20 KNHC 040010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SUSTAINED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 25W/26W. A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 20W-28W. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED JUST E OF THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING W AT 12 KT. A SMALL INVERTED V-SHAPE PATTERN IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOMEWHAT LIKE A TROPICAL SURGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-73W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 13N30W 10N50W 9N60W. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. SIX AND THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N82W 25N90W 20N95W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT 5-10 KT...NLY N OF THE TROUGH AND SLY S OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 80W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 91W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 76W-85W. A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N91W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER SMALL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 86W-100W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 69W/70W...SEE ABOVE. A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE 20 KT EASTERLIES ARE NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG 9N BETWEEN N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT AND PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 27N50W 28N60W 32N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT E OF 50W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 42N13W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 26N32W. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ALONG WITH A DENSE SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA TO 60W MAINLY N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND THE HIGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N43W. A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 37W. $$ FORMOSA