000 AXNT20 KNHC 030622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. A FEW OTHER CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11.5N 36W. THIS IS A NEW FEATURE AT 03/0000 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 40W AT 02/1800 UTC HAS BEEN DROPPED AT 03/0000 UTC. A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11.5N 42W REMAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ALONG THIS WAVE EARLIER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. OTHER CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W NEAR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 55W FROM 10N TO 20N. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 14N17W 13N21W 14N24W 14N30W 12N35W 11N45W 10N53W 11N61W. CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 3.5N TO 4.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FAR WEST TEXAS BEYOND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N96W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N98W JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W JUST OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD OUT ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W...COVERING THE GULF AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MEXICO WEST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N72W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO JAMAICA TO NORTHEASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH. DRY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EVEN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING...DISSIPATING...AND RE-DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 67W AND 84W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N52W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 31N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N57W BEYOND 32N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N54W BEYOND 32N44W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N37W TO 26N46W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 73W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N22W TO 27N25W 27N35W TO ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N44W TO 20N52W. A SHEAR AXIS EXISTS BETWEEN 20N52W AND THE 23N72W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. $$ MT