000
AXNT20 KNHC 022338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC 
CURVATURE IS SEEN IN LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 
19W-23W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID 
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ANOTHER 
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W THAT 
HAS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 
34W-46W.  

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 61W S 
OF 19N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N MOVING W 
10-15 KT.  MOST ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 59W-65W.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 13N20W 12N40W 10N50W 12N60W. 
ASIDE FROM THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVES/LOWS... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 24W-27W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE 
LIGHT AT 5-10 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W.  DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND 
THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 76W-85W.  ANOTHER SMALL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W.  CYCLONIC FLOW 
IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 92W.  EXPECT 
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 61W...SEE ABOVE.  A 
1004 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 4N74W.  5-10 KT 
EASTERLIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA WHERE 20 KT EASTERLIES ARE NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG 9N BETWEEN 
N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A 
RIDGE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 
85W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 
24N73W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 
70W-85W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 16N55W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT AND 
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE 
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W.  A 
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N28W.  BOTH SYSTEMS 
ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ALONG WITH A 
DENSE SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA TO 55W MAINLY N OF 15N. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND 
THE HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N44W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 
37W-50W. A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 37W.    

$$
FORMOSA