000 AXNT20 KNHC 021039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 10.5N39.5W-14N42W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 28W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 19N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS FILLED IN WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 13.5N57W-16.5N62W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 12N21W 10N35W 8N45W 11N57W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA/W PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE GEORGIA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 30N87W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W AND IS BEARING A SHEAR LINE. WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS KEEPING THE NW GULF CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. A VERY BROAD AND STRONG UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS ALL OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF AS WELL. THIS IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE W GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NW ATLC IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BUT STILL EXTENDS S TO OVER FLORIDA AND W CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE S GULF S OF 24N E OF 94W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 13N79W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 73W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES... CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 11N W OF 75W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAKENING UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE S OVER FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST RIDGE EXTENDING TO EASTWARD N OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AND LIES S OF THE EAST/WEST RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W COVERING THE AREA FROM 65W-79W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-80W. A SECOND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TO THE S OF THE ABOVE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM AFRICA ALONG 20N ALONG 16N34W TO AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 16N57W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W WSW TO 27N70W IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DRY AND CLEAR. AFRICA DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-26N E OF 55W. $$ WALLACE