000 AXNT20 KNHC 020014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AT 01/2100 UTC IS NEAR 37.2N 77.1W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS TCPAT5/WTNT35 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. ERNESTO IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST FROM 37N-41N BETWEEN 69W-76W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 13N20W 12N30W 9N40W 8N45W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 17W-19W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 26W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N84W 21N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA ... AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF BETWEEN 86W-98W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ONLY DRIFT TO THE E... SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL PUSH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRESENTLY VOID OF TROPICAL WAVES...HOWEVER ONE IS APPROACHING AT 55W. A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE SEA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE 20 KT EASTERLIES ARE NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 78W-83W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A RIDGE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N55W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N56W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W. BOTH HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BESIDES THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND THE HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 37W-50W. A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 37W. $$ FORMOSA