000 AXNT20 KNHC 011802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 01/1500 UTC IS NEAR 36.4N 77.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 70 NM/130 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 34N TO 38N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE RAINS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDER- STORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N35W 14N36W 11N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 13N17W 11N26W 11N33W 8N39W 10N51W 10N58W 9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 11N22W 10N30W 10N38W 10N47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE JOHN IS POURING ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF MEXICO...EVEN INTO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 25N106W IN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA NEAR 35N99W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 24N90W...TO 22N92W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR 19N93.5W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SYNOPTIC SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA IN NICARAGUA. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING THE IMPACT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 21N84W 16N77W 16N66W WITH THIS TROUGH. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IS RECEIVING UPPER LEVEL DRY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. PRECIPITATION WAS TAKING PLACE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26.5N77W TO 29N76W TO 32N74W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH AND THE 25N71W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N18W...ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N24W...TO A COMPARATIVELY BIGGER- SIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W...TO A SMALLER-SIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N53W TO 27N62W TO A MASSIVE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N62W 27N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE 28N65W 25N69W 22N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W...FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...AND FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 21N84W 16N77W 16N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. A LARGE SCALE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N23W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N47W...TO 30N60W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 20W...WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ MT