000 AXNT20 KNHC 011241 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 UPDATE TO THE 01/1200 UTC POSITION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA CENTERED NEAR 35.8 77.6 AT 01/1200 UTC. THIS POSITION IS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 87 NM/160 KM SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE E COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND TRACKING TO OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SAT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. BROAD AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 33W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 19N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N27W 12N35W THEN ALONG 7N38W 9N52W 10N56W 8N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND S PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 25W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 85W-97W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER SW GEORGIA ALONG 28N84W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N91W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS/MEXICO. VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS KEEPING MOST OF THE GULF CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF E OF 85W. ALTHOUGH THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING E FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 78W AND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N76W TO NEAR 12N80W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 76W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N81W-17N86W INCLUDING THE TIP OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH AN OUTER RAIN BANDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS A RIDGE S OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E TO N OF BERMUDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR S AS 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE AXIS FROM 31N60W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 22N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 57W-74W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N22W WSW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W TO 25N48W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TO THE S OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N32W. ANOTHER AREA OF AFRICA DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 10N-25N E OF 47W. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W. $$ WALLACE