000 AXNT20 KNHC 311813 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 31/1800 UTC IS NEAR 31.9N 79.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 155 NM/285 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 80 NM/145 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W...IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...AND JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF ERNESTO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. THE GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO FORM IN 24 HOURS IN A LOCATION A BIT WEST OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS SITUATED NOW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16.5N. THIS LOW CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 12N15W 10N33W 9N36W 8N47W 8N51W 8N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N15W 11N23W 10N33W 8N39W 8N45W 8N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED ACROSS MEXICO...SOUTH OF 26N109W 26N103W 24N98W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 24N98W 22N93W...BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINNING AWAY FROM HURRICANE JOHN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES FROM MEXICO TO NICARAGUA WEST OF 84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SYNOPTIC SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR WESTERN NICARAGUA/WESTERN HONDURAS/EASTERN EL SALVADOR. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING THE IMPACT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH. ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IS RECEIVING UPPER LEVEL DRY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...INCLUDING OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST TO WEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE SEEN FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W JUST EAST OF JAMAICA AND 83W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE 10N75W TO 10N83W ITCZ FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 77W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF T.S. ERNESTO. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N72W. A RIDGE GOES FROM THIS 33N72W CENTER TO 28N77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N17W...IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO 33N26W...TO A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N34W...TO A THIRD LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N39W...TO A FOURTH LOW CENTER NEAR 27N49W TO 30N59W... TO A WELL-ORGANIZED AND WELL-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N65W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA/WESTERN HONDURAS/EASTERN EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CELLS ARE FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 52W AND 73W. A LARGE SCALE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N27W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N45W...TO 26N60W TO 28N74W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 20W...WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ MT