000 AXNT20 KNHC 311038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 80.2W AT 31/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 80 NM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE SE COAST FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE MAKING LANDFALL LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 22N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS OBSERVED WITH BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N45W-18N48W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N27W 8N40W 8N60W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N FROM 30W-36W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 20N W OF 88W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER SE ALABAMA ALONG 29N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 90W WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE W ATLC IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WSW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15N82W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 17N81W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 75W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE REGION AS IT IS PRODUCING BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL... EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE SE COAST FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 32N75W WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NE N OF BERMUDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE AXIS FROM 30N60W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N64W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N58W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 58W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 55W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 18N24W AND ANOTHER NEAR 20N45W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS CENTERED NEAR MADEIRA ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE AREA UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. $$ WALLACE