000 AXNT20 KNHC 310602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS AGAIN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 31/0325 UTC. ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 80.4W AT 31/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM E OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL... EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE SE COAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO JUST N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MOST OF THU AGAIN MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THU EVENING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 22N WITH A 10 12 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS OBSERVED WITH BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 14N44W-18N46W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N29W 9N40W 8N54W9N64W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N E OF 35W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N FROM 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC REGION. A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 22N W OF 87W WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER S ALABAMA ALONG 28N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 85W WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE W ATLC IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO WSW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HAITI AND CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM 72W-83W AND ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N W OF 72W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE REGION AS IT IS PRODUCING BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL... EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE SE COAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO JUST N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 31N77W WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NE N OF BERMUDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE AXIS FROM 29N57W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N62W TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 24N66W. ISOLATED/ SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 59W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N25W AND ANOTHER NEAR 20N45W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS CENTERED NEAR MADEIRA ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE AREA UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. $$ WALLACE